Property Forecast Australia – 2026: Which Cities Will Boom and Which Will Go Down?

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Property Forecast Australia – 2026: Which Cities Will Boom and Which Will Go Down?

Australia’s 2026 property forecast: Are we all ready for the shifts in the market across the country? The Australian property market is warming up for another significant year, 2026. According to recent research, predictions indicate how property markets in major capital cities are expected to perform as interest rates decline, migration trends change, and first-home buyer incentives are introduced nationwide.

This blog highlights key insights across all capital cities and what they mean for buyers, investors, and second-home buyers in 2026.

National Outlook: Prices Expected to Rise as Rates Fall

• House prices (combined capitals): +6%
• Unit prices (combined capitals): +5%

Many major factors are expected to fuel this growth:

1. Interest Rate Cuts Already Boosting Confidence: According to economists, rates have already gone down by 0.5%, and they now expect up to 3 more cuts by mid-2026. Even if cuts slow down, the current rate is independent enough to support strong buyer activity.
2. First Home Buyer Schemes Launch: The Australian Labour Party’s scheme, “Help to Buy”, launches in January, which will complement the current 5% deposit guarantee program. Multiple states, including Queensland, are adding their own grants, making 2026 a big year for first-time buyers.
3. Current Supply Shortfalls: Australia is still far from meeting its national housing target and demand. Demand is growing, but supply is not keeping up, adding upward pressure on prices across most markets.
4. Household Income Upgrades: With inflation cooling, incomes are slowly increasing. As a result, borrowing capacity and market confidence are improving.

Downside Risks

• Affordability challenges in high-priced markets
• Slowing migration, although expected to increase again as the government revises policies for foreign investors

City-by-City Forecasts for 2026

Sydney: Strongest Performer With 7% Growth

Forecast:

• Houses: +7% to a median of $1.83 million
• Units: +6% to $889,000

Sydney remains the most sensitive to interest in the market, meaning falling interest rates have more impact here than in other cities.

Key insights:

• Homeowners are expected to gain $112,000 in annual equity, outperforming the average annual salary of $103,000.
• The price difference between houses and units will widen to 106%.
• Units are still a smart choice for first-time buyers, even if people have different opinions, especially in areas where there aren’t many available.

Melbourne: Affordable and Ready for Growth

Forecast:

• Houses: +6% to $1.11 million
• Units: +5% to $584,000 (still 3% below 2021 peak)

Drivers:

• Strong population increment
• More affordability compared to Sydney
• Ongoing infrastructure funding

Challenges:

• High stamp duty and land taxes are still demotivating investors, which is giving more chances to owner-occupiers and long-term buyers.

Best for:

• Capital growth possibility over the medium to long term.

Brisbane: Still Growing, but Housing Is Getting Less Affordable

Forecast:

• Houses: +5% to $1.09 million
• Units: +5% to $701,000 (a new record high)

Market signals:

• Many first-home buyers are choosing units over houses because mortgage repayments now consume 50% of household income, up from 28% in 2019.
• The upcoming 2032 Olympics is putting pressure on construction, which has led to a shortage of tradespeople.
• Household sizes are growing as families move in together to handle increasing expenses.

Expect:

Slower growth for the moment, but an increment is expected as the Olympics get closer.

Adelaide: Growth Slowing After Huge Gains

Forecast:

• Houses: +4% to $1.05 million
• Units: +3% to $586,000

Mortgage repayments now take up 55% of household income, which shows that affordability is under pressure.

Key points:

• Adelaide has seen 100% growth since 2019, a level that is not easy to sustain.
• The price difference between units and houses is big, which indicates unit affordability opportunities.

Summary:

• The high growth period is likely over, but Adelaide remains steady for long-term buyers.

Perth: Still Strong, but No Longer Booming

Forecast:

• Houses: +5% to $982,000
• Units: +6% to $552,000

Perth continues to benefit from:

• Among the highest population growth rates in Australia
• Comparatively low affordability pressures
• Higher average rental yields (3.91%) than in Sydney (2.38%)

However, after a few very strong years, growth is now slowing to sustainable levels.

Best for:

• Investors are looking for high rental returns.

Canberra: Recovering, but Still Not Back to Past Highs

Forecast:

• Houses: +4% to $1.10 million (still 7% below 2022 peak)
• Units: +3% to $535,000 (15% below 2023 peak)

The city relies heavily on public-sector employment, which makes it vulnerable to political cycles. Limited economic diversity and slower population growth are still holding the market back. Despite the recent drop, 2026 looks like the beginning of a recovery.

What Does This Mean for Different Types of Buyers?

First Home Buyers

• 2026 is looking like a great year for you.
• More support from government programs
• Lower interest rates
• Opportunities in the unit market

Upgraders

Affordability improvements and moderating house prices in some cities make upgrading more possible compared to the past 2 years.

Investors

• Perth → Best for rental returns
• Melbourne → Best for capital growth
  Sydney → Best for long-term price growth

Why Units May Perform Better Than Houses in 2026

• First-home buyers will purchase more
• Units are still significantly cheaper than houses
• The price gap between houses and units is increasing.
• Unit supply is tightening in several cities (Brisbane, Adelaide)

Over the next 2–3 years, many experts predict that apartments will perform better, especially in markets where houses have become very expensive.

Final Thoughts: 2026 Is Looking Bright in Australia

Even though affordability is challenging in some capitals, the overall national prediction is positive. Falling interest rates, higher incomes, and strong first-home buyer activity are expected to keep the market moving in 2026.

Hot markets like Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide will slow down due to affordability limits, while Sydney and Melbourne are expected to regain strength as interest rates fall.

A separate Regional Property Forecast report is expected soon, and we will let you know once released.

If you want us to look into any specific market, suburb, or strategy, just let us know. We will be glad to help you.

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Australia’s Housing Shortage Will End in 2029

Australia’s Housing Shortage Will End in 2029

Quick Highlights of Australia’s 2026 Property Forecast

• Housing shortage in Australia declined by 47,000 homes in 2024–2025.
• The price of the property is still going up.
• We cannot expect a major improvement until 2028–2030, not in 2026.
• In 2026, supply will not meet the requirements created by immigration.
• The demand has been increasing after the new 5% deposit schemes.